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Healthcare conversational AI is projected to grow from $8.2B to $36B by 2032. The most rigorous meta-analysis (N>55,000) finds null effect. A contingency framework for what works. This piece introduces a contingency framework that predicts when conversational AI works, when it doesn't, and why dialogue structure, not the underlying language model, is the decisive factor for high-complexity tasks like insurance enrollment.
analysis · 10 min · 17 may 2026